March 14, 2014

3/14/14

Volatility products really picked up today, especially since the SPX was only down about 5 points. The Vix futures are in backwardation again.  I think were in the process of setting up for a nice correction but only time will tell. People have been conditioned to buy the dip for the last year.




The Biotech ETF which was up just about 100% last year has pulled back 8% from all time highs. Its currently at its 50DMA. Some of the high flyers in there have started to crack. Ex. GILD

So far this is a very mild pullback of about 3%.  Some of the untouchable nasdaq stocks from 2013 have taken some heat this week.

Bidu was sold pretty hard this week. While FB has been extremely strong lately moving as much as aapl in a day even though its 1/7th the size.

Brazil, Japan, and China have been beaten down this year. While the Russell remains up almost 2%. Still no fear in the US markets. 
Metals and Miners have had impressive runs ytd. This was something I predict at the beginning of the year and I believe they still have plenty of room to run.


Coffee prices have risen 80% YTD. I expected coffee prices to rise, but this was much farther than I could have imagined!

10 year yield has been trading in bull flag.  I would expect to see increasing Yields but if the market sells off people might rotate to treasuries for safety. 
Another ridiculous example of the market we are in. Plug power was up 1500% since december of 2013. The other day it lost 50% in 2 days. I made some nice money on the way down being long puts. I heard stories of people blowing out account buying this stock on portfolio margin. This stock was up less in the internet bubble of 99/2000. Since 2000 they have lost 850 million dollar and before it cracked a few days ago had a billion dollar market cap.  If you buying these stock you better hope your not the greater fool holding the bag...

Caught this screenshot on the way down.   Happy trading and don't be the fool holding the bag. ;-)