First week of February is done and there was some wicked volatility! The ES traded down to 1732 early wednesday and is closing out at the highs for the week at 1793! This morning the unemployment situation came in at 133k well below the consensus range. This caused some large moves in the indexes. The ES traded down over 1% and back up within 30 minutes. After having a horrible start to the year the NASDAQ is only down (.75%). The VIX got smashed today, losing just over 11%. The front month VIX future was hammered today losing (9%), the futures are now back to normal contango. The market was very strong this week and it is reminding me of buy the dip mentality of 2013. At this point the market still seems vulnerable and there are many thing different from 2013. Some difference are, the weakness in the dow/nikkei, the strength in bond/metals.
While some stocks are breaking out to new all time highs, there are a lot that have been hit and have not recovered nearly as much. Everything seems to be pointing to a weaker economy, such as the retail numbers, and the employment numbers. Its possible this rally was based on thinking the fed will do more to prop up the markets. Key numbers going forward in the ES are 1810 to the upside and 1765 to the downside. Keep an eye on the VIX!
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| ES traded up to 1785, down to 1758, and back to 1780 within 30 minutes. |
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| The ES closed at 1793, up 1.5% on the day! The ES closed the week very strong, above the previous weeks open. weekly pattern looks very bullish. 1810 should be a key level. |
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| Russell still looks very weak and below previous strong trend lines. 1120/1140 on the upside seem like key levels. |
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| Dow the weakest, Nasdaq only down (.75%) |
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| The Vix has had a cyclical nature for the last year topping out at 21, right on time. |
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| Back to normal after being in steep backwardation |
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| The 10 year is well of the magical 3% number. |
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| NFLX is on a tear. New all time highs of $430! up 22$ on the day. |
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| Natural gas has been trading in an insane range. It is off the high by (17%) in 3 days! |
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Twitter got crushed on earnings, losing (25%) overnight. It had a strong bounce back today 8.5% |
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| Apple has retraced 50% from its earnings drop. It was strong relative to the market all week and it was because apple bought back 14 billion worth of stock. |
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| Coffee has had a huge run. I closed my position with a 25% gain. At this point it looks technically weak and after such a huge run in a short period of time I would expect to see it pullback. Right now I'm on the sideline and will reevaluate in the future. |
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| Silver had a strong week, but it is still stuck in that range between 19.5 and 18.5 |
