February 18, 2014

New highs.

84 stocks of the S&P 500 were making new 52 week highs today. I would like to believe that this huge rally in the last couple days is bogus but at this point its hard not to believe it. We've seen this play out multiple times in 2013,  a 3-6% correction and then a continuation of the march higher. Some points to think about. 17% of the SP500 made new 52 week highs. Recent news stories have been terrible such as Japans GDP number, record high spain bad debt, empire fed #, retail #, unemployment #,  Homebuilder #, terrible political situation in  Ukraine and Venezuela, Yellen said she would continue with the taper, but still the market makes new highs everyday. The market is shrugging it shoulders at everything and it shows with the vix back in the 13 handle. From a technical perspective the nasdaq has already made new highs, the S&P has resistance about 10 point higher from here around 1845 and the russell/Dow still look weak. Hopefully we will see some weakness in the coming days, it's a lot better trading environment with two sided markets and higher volatility.
What a difference a week has made in the markets. Equity indexes have made a nice recovery from early year lows and the nasdaq is extremely strong up 2.6% for the year. The nasdaq has rallied 8% in the last nine days.  Treasuries have been a strong performer this year. 

Commodities are exploding this year, I locked in a 25% gain in coffee a few days ago, in hindsight it was to early. I really didn't have a reason to sell, except I thought the move was to much to fast. I never had a chance to reload and its now up 40% YTD.
As you can see almost all the main commodities are up for the year.

Looking at a chart of Silver, You can see that it consolidated in a range between 18 and 19.5 for quite some time, with the last few days holding above the 50 day MA.   Silver finally broken out gapping above the 200 day MA and holding with some decent volume.  Right now I don't see a reason to sell, I will sell OTM calls to reduce my cost basis.